| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 66° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 71° to 72° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 73° to 74° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 69° to 70° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 67° to 68° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 75° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature outcome will register as the highest temperature in Washington, D.C. on March 23, 2026. It matters because one-day temperature extremes affect public safety, energy use, and short-term planning in the region.
Late March is a highly transitional period for the Mid‑Atlantic, with the region able to receive either cold continental air or warm maritime air depending on the synoptic pattern. Year‑to‑year variability is large and has been influenced by broader climate trends, so both near‑seasonal norms and anomalous spikes are plausible. Short‑range model forecasts and surface observations in the days leading up to March 23 will drive market updates.
Market odds reflect traders’ collective, real‑time assessment of which temperature outcome is most likely given available forecasts and observations; they change as new data arrive. Use them as a dynamic signal of consensus rather than a definitive forecast.
The contract’s resolution text on the market page specifies the official observation source (for example, a named NOAA/NWS station or an NCEI dataset). Check the event’s settlement rules on KALSHI to see the exact station or dataset that will be used.
The market’s settlement language defines the measurement method (instantaneous observation, reported hourly or 5‑minute values, and any rounding). Refer to that resolution text so you know which measurement type will determine the outcome.
The event’s rules spell out the time standard and window (often the local calendar day, e.g., 00:00 to 23:59 local time). Confirm the market’s stated time convention to understand exactly which observations are eligible.
Settlement procedures typically include tie‑breaking rules and fallbacks for missing or suspect data (such as using a nearby official station or provisional archival records). Those procedures are described in the contract resolution; consult it for specifics.
Climatology provides a baseline range and typical variability for March 23 in Washington, D.C., which helps assess how unusual a given outcome would be. However, day‑to‑day synoptic dynamics usually dominate single‑day extremes, so combine climatology with current model guidance and observations.