| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 78° to 79° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 80° to 81° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 84° to 85° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 82° to 83° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 86° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 77° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature recorded in Washington, D.C. will be on March 22, 2026. It matters for weather-sensitive planning, energy demand estimates, and as a test of short-term forecasting and market information aggregation.
Late March in Washington, D.C. is a transitional period where warm spring air masses can arrive early or late-season cold intrusions can suppress temperatures. Historical records and recent seasonal trends give context, but day-to-day synoptic patterns determine the actual high on a single date.
Market odds reflect the collective expectations of traders based on available observations and forecasts; interpret price movements as signals of changing information (e.g., model updates, surface observations) rather than fixed predictions.
Outcome resolution will rely on the data source and specifying station named in the market's resolution criteria; if the market description does not explicitly name a source, the typical practice is to use the official National Weather Service observation for the designated Washington, D.C. station (for example, the primary airport observation) for the local calendar date. Always check the market page for the definitive resolving authority and dataset.
The market close time is shown on the market page; this event currently lists the close as TBD. Trades are accepted until the posted close, and the highest temperature is determined from observations within the defined local-date window (usually 00:00–23:59 local time) specified by the market.
The precise measurement definition (instantaneous reported observation vs. hourly or minute-averaged value) is set by the market's resolution rules. Many temperature markets use the maximum official reported observation from the resolving station; check the market description to see which metric is used here.
Short-term forecast model outputs (deterministic and ensemble), satellite and radar trends, and current surface observations drive trader expectations. As the event date gets closer and model agreement improves, market prices tend to adjust to reflect updated projections of air mass, frontal timing, cloud cover, and precipitation.
Consult official climatological archives such as NOAA/NCEI, the National Weather Service local climate pages, and station METAR/ASOS archives for Reagan National and other D.C. area stations. Those sources provide long-term averages, daily maxima, and past extremes useful for historical context.