| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 65° to 66° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 60° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 69° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 61° to 62° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 63° to 64° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 67° to 68° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the maximum air temperature observed in Washington, D.C. will be on March 21, 2026. The outcome is meaningful for traders and for stakeholders tracking short-term weather impacts on energy, travel, and public health in the DC area.
Late March is a transition month in the mid-Atlantic when temperatures can swing from cool to unseasonably warm depending on synoptic patterns. Long-term warming trends change the baseline climatology, but daily outcomes are dominated by the timing of fronts, cloud cover, and large-scale air mass advection. Historical seasonal patterns and recent model guidance together shape expectations for a single calendar day.
Market prices reflect the collective expectation for which temperature range will be observed on that date and should be read as a real‑time signal that complements official forecasts and observations. Always confirm final outcome with the event's stated official data source and settlement rules.
Settlement will use the highest official surface air temperature recorded for the calendar date in local time at the event's designated official station or data source; consult the event page for the exact station and settlement definition (e.g., local 00:00–24:00 observation period and the source used).
The event contract specifies the official data source and station; markets like this commonly rely on NOAA/NWS observations for the Washington, DC area (such as Reagan National Airport) or the named NCEI/NWS dataset—verify the event's rules to see which provider and station are authoritative for settlement.
The event page lists the closing time (currently TBD); trading typically closes at the time specified there and may close before, during, or after the observation period—check the event page for the exact cutoff so you know whether late forecasts or observations can affect market exposure.
Historical March distributions provide a climatological baseline that helps frame what temperatures are typical versus unusual, but single‑day outcomes depend on short‑term synoptic conditions; combine climatology with recent model forecasts and surface observations when forming a view.
Monitor deterministic and ensemble model runs (e.g., ECMWF, GFS ensembles) for the timing of fronts, expected cloud cover, precipitation chances, and temperature advection; also watch surface observations, airport METARs, and regional radar/satellite for evolving conditions in the 72 hours leading up to the date.