| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 68° to 69° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 66° to 67° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 64° to 65° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 72° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 70° to 71° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 63° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature recorded in Washington, D.C. will be on March 20, 2026. It matters for people and businesses that plan around day-to-day weather extremes and for understanding short-term regional forecasting skill.
Late March sits near the climatological transition from winter to spring, so day-to-day highs in D.C. can swing with passing fronts and large-scale pattern shifts. Long-term warming trends have nudged spring temperatures upward, but individual daily maxima remain strongly controlled by transient weather systems and local factors.
Market prices represent the collective expectation of which outcome (temperature bin or value) will be observed; they update as forecasts and observations evolve and should be read as a consensus signal, not a deterministic forecast.
The market will settle to the official highest air temperature reported for March 20, 2026 by the designated official meteorological station for Washington, D.C., as specified in the contract's resolution terms; check the listing's resolution clause for the precise station and measurement convention.
Resolution typically occurs after the official daily observations for March 20 are published and any exchange-specified waiting or verification period has passed; consult the exchange event page for the exact settlement timestamp and any closing times.
Each outcome corresponds to a mutually exclusive temperature bin or discrete value as printed on the market page; exactly one outcome will win based on the recorded highest temperature, so review the outcome labels and cutpoints on the market before trading.
The most informative indicators are deterministic and ensemble model forecasts for 48–120 hours (frontal timing, 850 hPa temperatures), sky cover and precipitation forecasts, surface wind direction (onshore vs. inland flow), and any snow or wet ground cover that would suppress daytime warming.
Settlement follows the exchange's published resolution policy: it will use the authoritative official observation or archive specified in the contract. If the designated agency issues later revisions, the exchange's rules determine whether and how those revisions affect final settlement, so consult the resolution policy for dispute or revision procedures.