| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 37° to 38° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $25K | Trade → |
| 35° to 36° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $22K | Trade → |
| 39° to 40° | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $15K | Trade → |
| 34° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $11K | Trade → |
| 43° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| 41° to 42° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
This market asks traders to predict the highest observed temperature in Washington, D.C. on March 2, 2026. The result matters for energy demand, travel planning, and weather-sensitive operations that respond to day-to-day temperature extremes.
Early March in the D.C. area is a transition period between winter and spring, so temperatures can swing quickly depending on the presence of Arctic air masses, warm surges from the south, or coastal systems. Day-to-day variability is common and forecasts typically become much more reliable in the 1–3 days before the target date. The market aggregates real-time information about those changing forecasts.
Market odds reflect the collective expectation of which outcome bin will contain the observed daily maximum; they update as new weather observations and model runs arrive. Treat odds as a relative, market-implied assessment rather than a fixed meteorological forecast.
Check the market's contract text for the precise settlement window; markets usually rely on the official local calendar day or the daily maximum reported by the designated observing station for March 2 in the local time zone.
The market’s contract specifies the data source. Commonly this is an official NWS/NOAA automated surface observing system (ASOS) station serving the D.C. metro area; confirm the exact station and data feed in the contract details before trading.
Each of the six outcomes represents a predefined temperature range; the exact numeric boundaries are listed in the market's outcome descriptions. Review those labels to understand which outcome aligns with your forecast.
Trading close time is currently listed as TBD — the platform will announce the official close and settlement timing. Settlement typically occurs after the official daily observation is published by the designated data provider.
Key near-term changers are shifts in forecast model guidance, the timing of any cold front or warm surge, arrival of a coastal low that brings clouds/precipitation, and changes in snow cover; these can all alter the daytime maximum within a few days of the event.