| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 52° to 53° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 54° to 55° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 60° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 51° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 56° to 57° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 58° to 59° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature bin will be the highest observed in Washington, DC on March 19, 2026. The outcome matters to people and businesses exposed to weather risk (energy demand, event planning, transportation) and to those tracking short-term climate variability.
Mid‑March in the Washington, DC region is a transitional time of year when temperatures can swing between late‑winter chill and early‑spring warmth depending on large‑scale weather patterns. Daily maxima on a given March 19 have historically varied substantially, driven by the position of fronts, air mass origin, and cloud cover. Traders in this market will be synthesizing weather model forecasts, recent observations, and local climatology.
Market prices aggregate participant beliefs about which temperature outcome will be realized; they are a real‑time consensus signal that complements official forecasts and observations. Always check the event description for the exact settlement definition used by the exchange.
Settlement will be based on the official daily maximum temperature as defined in the event's settlement rules; check the market page to confirm whether that is a one‑minute, five‑minute, or hourly observation and which reporting time standard is used.
The market's event page or exchange settlement rules specify the official data source; commonly used sources for DC markets are the National Weather Service/NOAA station listed in the contract (e.g., Reagan National or another designated station), so verify the listed station before trading.
Settlement occurs after the designated official agency publishes the validated daily maximum for Mar 19; the exchange will follow its stated timing (often shortly after the observing agency releases finalized daily values), which is listed on the event page.
The six outcomes correspond to the discrete temperature bins or exact values shown on the market page; each outcome represents a specific range or value as defined in the contract, so consult the listed boundaries before placing trades.
Key developments include the arrival or timing of any frontal passage, timing of peak daytime sunshine versus cloudiness, precipitation or lingering snow cover, and rapid changes in wind direction bringing warmer or colder air into the region; unexpected observation issues at the reporting station can also affect the official recorded maximum.