| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45° to 46° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 47° to 48° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 40° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 49° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 43° to 44° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 41° to 42° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature range will be the highest observed in Washington, D.C. on March 18, 2026; it matters because daily maximum temperatures affect energy demand, public health planning, and short-term weather-sensitive decisions.
March is a transitional month in the mid-Atlantic with high day-to-day variability driven by the late-winter jet stream and developing springtime sunshine. Long-term warming trends raise baseline temperatures, but individual daily outcomes are still strongly controlled by synoptic-scale weather systems and local effects in the District.
Market prices represent the collective assessment of traders based on available forecasts and information; they update as new model runs, observations, and local measurements arrive and can be used alongside official forecasts to gauge expectation and uncertainty.
Settlement uses the specific official temperature observation defined in the market's settlement rules; that will typically be a NOAA/NWS official station or a named local observing site—check the event page for the exact data source and station.
The market will use the 24-hour period and definition specified in its settlement rules (commonly the local calendar day for the named observing station); consult the event's official documentation for the precise start and end times used for settlement.
The stated close time for this market is 'TBD'; monitor the event page for an announced trading close. Settlement will occur after official observations for Mar 18, 2026 are published by the designated data provider.
Mid-March often shows high variability—some years produce late-winter cold while others have early spring warmth; long-term warming trends raise typical baseline temperatures but do not remove the year-to-year synoptic variability that drives a single-day maximum.
Follow short-range numerical weather prediction updates (national centers and high-resolution models), local NWS forecasts and advisories for the D.C. area, real-time station observations, and mesoscale analyses of fronts, cloud cover, and precipitation timing that will affect daytime heating.