| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 44° to 45° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 46° to 47° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 50° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 42° to 43° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 41° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 48° to 49° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks traders to predict the highest observed air temperature in Washington, D.C. on March 17, 2026. Outcomes are useful for people hedging weather risk, event planners, and observers tracking seasonal or climate-driven variability.
March is a transitional month in the mid-Atlantic and can exhibit rapid swings between lingering cold and early spring warmth due to shifting frontal patterns. Short-term forecasts (days out) and synoptic setups (position of highs, lows, and fronts) typically drive the day-to-day result, while long-term climate trends shift baseline conditions over years. For settlement, the precise reporting station, measurement method, and clock (local time) used will be those specified in the contract terms.
Market prices express the collective information and expectations of traders given available forecasts and observations; they are not direct measurements. For exact settlement rules and the data source used to determine the highest temperature, consult the contract details on the platform.
The market will settle using the specific station and official data source named in the contract details on the Kalshi platform; check the contract page for the exact observing site and dataset used for settlement.
The contract defines the local date/time window used for settlement (typically the local calendar day at the reporting station); consult the contract terms for the precise start and end times and the time zone used.
Settlement procedures for missing or corrected data are specified in the contract rules; they commonly rely on the official corrected record from the designated data provider or defined fallback procedures—review the market rules for details.
Only the station or composite explicitly specified in the contract will be used for settlement; nearby stations are not used unless the contract explicitly designates a composite or alternate station.
The market’s close time and settlement announcement schedule are listed on the Kalshi event page; settlement will occur after the official observation for the date is published and any platform review period has elapsed—check the event page for exact timing.