| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 71° to 72° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 68° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 75° to 76° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 69° to 70° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 77° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 73° to 74° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which of several outcome ranges will contain the highest air temperature observed in Washington, DC on March 16, 2026. It matters for weather forecasting, short-term climate awareness, and traders betting on near-term meteorological outcomes.
Washington, DC spring temperatures can swing widely from chilly to unseasonably warm depending on large-scale weather systems. Daily highs on a single date are driven by the passage of fronts, air-mass origin, cloud cover, and synoptic-scale patterns; historical context (recent warm or cold trends) can inform expectations but does not determine a single-day outcome.
Market prices reflect collective expectations about which listed temperature-range outcome will cover the observed maximum for that date; interpret them as the market's consensus about the relative likelihood of each discrete outcome, not as definitive forecasts.
The relevant window is the local calendar date for Washington, DC (Eastern Time) from 00:00 to 23:59 on March 16, 2026; final settlement uses the official daily maximum reported for that local date per the market's settlement source.
Settlement will follow the market's specified official source—commonly National Weather Service/NOAA observations for the designated official DC station (for example, Reagan National Airport) or a named NCEI dataset; check the market rules to confirm the exact source.
Typically the highest reported air temperature means the official 2‑meter air temperature observation recorded by the designated station during the local date, using the data resolution and rounding conventions of the settlement source; consult the market's settlement rules for precise measurement and rounding practices.
The market will settle according to the procedures in its rules: that may involve using a backup official station, quality-controlled post-event datasets, or an adjudication procedure specified by the platform—refer to the event's settlement and dispute policies.
Broader warming trends can shift the baseline distribution of daily temperatures, but a single-day maximum is primarily controlled by immediate weather patterns (fronts, clouds, winds); use both climatological context and short-range forecasts to inform expectations.