| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 57° to 58° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 56° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 65° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 61° to 62° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 63° to 64° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 59° to 60° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest temperature recorded in Washington, DC will be on March 15, 2026; it matters to traders and observers tracking short-term weather variability and impacts (energy, transport, public health).
Mid‑March in the Washington, DC region is a transitional season with large day‑to‑day swings driven by passing fronts and variable sunshine. Daily maxima on a given calendar date can differ substantially year to year depending on synoptic pattern, cloud cover, precipitation, and where observations are taken.
Prices in this market represent the collective expectation for which outcome bin will contain the official daily maximum temperature; they update as models, surface observations, and forecasts evolve. Always check the event’s settlement rules and data source to understand exactly what observation will determine the final outcome.
The specific settlement data source and station should be listed in the KALSHI event description and rules; check that page first. If the event does not specify, platforms typically use a National Weather Service or other official local observation — confirm the exact station, measurement convention, and time window on the event page.
Settlement timing depends on the event rules listed by KALSHI. Common practice is to use the official daily maximum as published by the specified observing agency, often finalized after the 24‑hour day ends; consult the event page for the precise settlement cutoffs and any wait-for-data rules.
Each of the six outcomes corresponds to a mutually exclusive temperature bin defined on the event page; the final winning outcome will be the bin that contains the official daily maximum temperature. Refer to the event’s outcome labels for the exact ranges.
Monitor model runs for frontal timing, mesoscale features, cloud trends, precipitation forecasts, and surface observations in the 48–72 hours before the date. A front shifting timing by a few hours, rapid clearing, or unexpected precipitation can substantially alter the daytime maximum.
Mid‑March climatology indicates a transitional period with a wide range of plausible daily maxima; climatology provides a baseline expectation but actual outcomes depend strongly on that year’s synoptic pattern. Use recent climatology and nearby recent observations as context, while prioritizing short‑term model guidance for day‑of impacts.