| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 63° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 59° to 60° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 55° to 56° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 61° to 62° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 54° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 57° to 58° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature recorded in Washington, D.C. will be on March 14, 2026; it matters for traders hedging weather exposure and for anyone tracking near-term temperature extremes in the mid-Atlantic.
March is a transitional month in the mid-Atlantic with high day-to-day variability driven by passing storms, cold fronts, and early-season warm spells. Long-term warming trends and the urban heat island can shift baseline expectations, but short-term synoptic weather patterns typically determine the specific daily maximum.
Market prices aggregate traders' current expectations and move as forecasts and observations change; interpret them as a snapshot of collective beliefs about which outcome will be realized rather than a fixed forecast.
The closing time is listed on the market page (currently TBD); exchanges typically set a final trade cutoff before the observation day or at a specified time on the day in question—check the market’s listing for the exact cutoff.
The contract’s resolution rules specify the official data source (for example, an NWS/NOAA station or a named airport station); consult the market contract text to confirm the exact station or agency used for settlement.
Resolution definitions vary by contract: some use the official daily maximum reported by the designated station, others use a specific observation interval; the market’s resolution rules will state the precise definition.
Contingency procedures are in the market’s resolution rules; typical fallbacks include use of an alternate official dataset, adjudication by the reporting agency, or another predefined resolution method—check the contract for specifics.
Use historical climatology to establish a baseline range and typical variability for mid-March, but weigh it together with current model forecasts and synoptic trends because weather systems in the days immediately before the 14th usually have the largest influence on the realized maximum.