| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 67° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 76° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 72° to 73° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 68° to 69° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 70° to 71° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 74° to 75° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks traders to predict the highest air temperature recorded in Washington, DC on March 12, 2026; outcomes provide a way to hedge or express views on near-term weather for planning and risk management.
March is a transitional month in the mid-Atlantic, so day-to-day temperatures can swing between unseasonably warm and wintry conditions depending on synoptic patterns. Markets like this aggregate forecasters, local observers, and traders reacting to model runs, official forecasts, and real-time observations.
Market prices reflect collective expectations for which temperature-range outcome will be observed by the official reporting station and time window; interpret prices as a real-time signal of changing weather information rather than a fixed forecast.
The event listing currently shows the close time as TBD; the market operator will publish an official close time and the precise observation window for March 12. Outcome determination typically uses the official 24-hour local observation period for the specified station, so check the market rules or announcements for exact settlement timing.
The market’s settlement rules specify the official station and dataset (for example, an NWS station such as Reagan National Airport or another designated climate site). Always consult the contract’s settlement clause to confirm which station, instrument, and reporting source will be used.
Contracts typically use the highest reported air temperature measured at the specified official station during the defined local observation day, following the reporting conventions named in the settlement rules (for example, METAR/observation reports or official daily maxima). Refer to the contract text for precise definitions such as averaging period or rounding rules.
March is climatologically variable in the mid-Atlantic, with frequent oscillations between warm southerly intrusions and cold polar air; traders should weigh both recent multi-day model trends and longer-term seasonal signals when forming expectations.
Short-range numerical weather model runs and ensemble updates, official NWS forecast shifts, observations from nearby stations (including overnight lows), and any rapid changes in frontal timing or precipitation forecasts are the primary information events that typically shift trader views.