| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 85° or above | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $21K | Trade → |
| 83° to 84° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $13K | Trade → |
| 79° to 80° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $9K | Trade → |
| 81° to 82° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| 76° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| 77° to 78° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature bucket Washington, D.C. will record as its highest temperature on March 11, 2026. It matters for traders betting on short-term weather extremes and for anyone monitoring how forecast models and synoptic patterns translate into realized temperatures.
Washington, D.C. experiences highly variable March weather driven by shifting air masses — late-winter cold snaps and early-spring warm spells are both possible. Prediction markets like this combine real-time forecasts, observations, and trader expectations to create a continuously updating view of likely outcomes.
Market prices reflect the crowd's collective expectation for which discrete temperature outcome will occur; movements typically track incoming forecast data, observational reports, and new model runs rather than long-term climatology.
This market has six discrete outcomes representing different temperature buckets for the highest observed temperature in Washington, D.C. on March 11, 2026. See the market page for the exact bucket breaks.
Resolution will follow the market's official rulebook, which specifies the observing station and data source used (commonly an NWS/NOAA station designated for Washington, D.C.). Check the contract terms on the market page for the definitive resolver.
Markets typically use the local calendar day (midnight-to-midnight) at the resolved station's local timezone and the official daily maximum reported by the designated observing network. Confirm the exact time definition in the market's resolution rules.
The market lists a closing time on the platform when set; markets also specify when resolution occurs after the observation is available. Since this event shows 'Closes: TBD', check the market page or updates for final close and resolution timing.
Major drivers are new deterministic and ensemble forecast model runs, short-term observational trends (e.g., upstream temperatures, frontal timing), changes in satellite/radar-derived cloud and precipitation forecasts, and official updates from NWS affecting the expected daytime maximum.