| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 83° or above | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $20K | Trade → |
| 81° to 82° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $11K | Trade → |
| 79° to 80° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| 77° to 78° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 74° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 75° to 76° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
This market asks participants to predict the highest air temperature recorded in Washington, DC on March 10, 2026. Outcomes provide a short-term probabilistic view of what the day’s peak temperature will be, useful for energy load planning, event logistics, and weather-sensitive decision-making.
March is a transitional month in the Mid-Atlantic with large day-to-day variability driven by passing storms, cold-air intrusions, or warm surges from the south. Longer-term climate trends slightly shift baseline temperatures, but day-to-day synoptic setup (position of highs, lows, and fronts) typically dominates the realized temperature on a specific date. This market converts those meteorological and climatological factors into tradable outcomes.
Market prices reflect the collective expectation of traders and update as new model output and observations arrive; they are best interpreted as a probabilistic signal, not a deterministic forecast. For final settlement details and the exact observational source, consult the event rules on the platform.
The event’s rules on the platform specify the official observational source (for example, a National Weather Service station). Always check the event description for the named station or dataset; if the source is not listed there, contact the platform support for clarification before trading.
The close time is listed on the event page (currently TBD). Settlement typically occurs after the official daily observation is posted by the named source; the platform will announce the settlement timing and any verification procedures in the event details.
Most markets use the maximum air temperature recorded by the specified official station within the defined observation window (commonly the local calendar day or a MET-specified period). Check the event rules for rounding conventions, measurement height, and whether automated or manual readings are used.
Short- and medium-range guidance (global models like ECMWF/GFS, high-resolution ensembles, and nowcasts), surface/depth observations, and trends in ensemble spreads will move prices as they change the assessed likelihood of warm vs. cool regimes for that day.
Historical climatology provides a baseline expectation and the range of typical variability for March 10; combine that context with current seasonal anomalies (e.g., persistent warmth or cold), recent trends, and imminent model guidance to form a forward-looking view rather than relying on climatology alone.