| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 59° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 60° to 61° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 62° to 63° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 64° to 65° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 66° to 67° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 68° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks the official daily maximum temperature recorded in Washington, D.C., on April 6, 2026. It allows participants to hedge against or speculate on climate variability during the mid-spring season.
Washington, D.C. experiences a temperate climate where April marks a significant transition from late winter to spring. Historical data shows that daily high temperatures during this time of year can vary significantly based on cold fronts or early heat waves, making precise forecasting challenging for this specific date.
The market distribution reflects the collective anticipation of how seasonal weather patterns and regional atmospheric conditions will influence the specific reading at the official observation station.
The official temperature is determined by the National Weather Service, typically measured at the Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport station.
The market settles based on the official maximum temperature recorded by the National Weather Service, regardless of whether the weather was deemed unusual or extreme.
This market settles based on the realized, official historical data for the specified date, not on speculative weather forecasts.
The market tracks the highest temperature recorded at any point during the 24-hour period of April 6, 2026, which usually occurs during the afternoon.
Yes, the market is divided into categorical ranges; you should check the market details to see the specific temperature brackets defining each outcome.