| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 66° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 67° to 68° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 69° to 70° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 71° to 72° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 73° to 74° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 75° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market predicts the daily maximum temperature recorded in Washington, D.C., on April 2, 2026. It serves as a derivative instrument for traders to speculate on localized meteorological data and seasonal weather volatility.
Washington, D.C. experiences significant spring variability, often influenced by the transition from winter air masses to early-season warming patterns. Historical temperature records for early April vary widely, ranging from chilly late-winter conditions to unseasonably warm afternoons. These fluctuations are governed by jet stream positioning and the movement of cold or warm fronts across the Mid-Atlantic region.
The market prices reflect the collective anticipation of weather models and historical climate averages, representing the range of likely peak temperatures for that specific day.
The official temperature is typically derived from data reported by the National Weather Service (NWS) at Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport (DCA).
No, this market tracks the official recorded air temperature, not apparent temperature or heat index values.
The market resolves based on the official recorded maximum temperature reported by the designated source, regardless of whether that temperature is considered a record-breaking event.
April is a volatile month for weather forecasting; because this date is far in advance, long-range predictions are based more on climatological averages than on specific day-of forecasting.
The official daily high is published in the National Weather Service climate data archives for the Washington, D.C. area following the conclusion of the day.