| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 44° to 45° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $25K | Trade → |
| 46° to 47° | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $10K | Trade → |
| 42° to 43° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| 48° to 49° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 50° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 41° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature bucket will contain the highest official air temperature recorded in Seattle on March 9, 2026. It matters because it consolidates short-range weather forecasts, observational choices, and local-climate variability into a single, tradeable question.
Seattle's early-March highs normally reflect a transition between cool, marine-influenced air and occasional warm Pacific or continental intrusions; outcomes can swing widely with the timing of frontal passages and upper‑level patterns. Longer-term trends (warmer baselines, changing storm tracks) alter the background distribution of March temperatures but day‑to‑day variability is dominated by synoptic weather systems and local effects. The U.S. switch to Daylight Saving Time on March 8, 2026 means March 9 observations occur on Pacific Daylight Time.
Each market outcome corresponds to a defined temperature range or bucket and prices reflect traders' consensus about which bucket will include the day's official maximum; interpret changes in market prices as updated collective expectations as forecasts and observations evolve.
The relevant period is the local calendar date for March 9, 2026 (midnight to 23:59:59 local time), but the market will settle to the official value from the specified data source—check the event description for the precise observation window and any settlement rules.
The event description should name the settling source; commonly used sources are NOAA/NWS ASOS at Seattle‑Tacoma (Sea‑Tac) or NOAA/NCEI daily summaries. Always confirm the exact station/product listed on this event's rules.
The six outcomes partition the possible maximum temperatures on that date into mutually exclusive ranges (temperature bins). The event page lists the exact boundaries and labels for each bin—consult those labels to know which temperatures fall into each outcome.
Some official datasets undergo post‑processing, but settlement follows the specific source and version named in the event rules. If the market uses preliminary ASOS observations it will settle to those values; if it uses finalized NCEI daily records, settlement will follow the final published value—check the event's settlement source and cutoff policy.
March 9, 2026 falls after the U.S. DST change, so local times are Pacific Daylight Time (PDT, UTC−7). The data source will report values in local time conventions, so interpret 'March 9' as the local calendar day in PDT unless the event explicitly states a different time standard.