| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 53° to 54° | 91% | 98¢ | 99¢ | — | $11K | Trade → |
| 55° to 56° | 3% | 1¢ | 2¢ | — | $9K | Trade → |
| 50° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| 57° to 58° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 51° to 52° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 59° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
This market asks which of several outcome bins will contain the highest observed temperature in Seattle on March 7, 2026. It matters because short-term temperature extremes influence energy demand, public health, and local operations, and markets provide a continuously updated crowd estimate tied to real-world observations.
Early March in the Pacific Northwest is a transitional month: conditions can range from cool, wet Pacific storms to brief warm spells driven by inland high pressure and southerly flow. Longer-term climate trends have shifted seasonal baselines upward, making warm anomalies more likely than they were decades ago, but day-to-day weather is still dominated by synoptic-scale patterns over the North Pacific.
Market prices represent the market consensus about which discrete temperature outcome will be realized under the contract's settlement rules; interpret them as signals about expected atmospheric conditions rather than precise forecasts. Because prices update as new forecasts and observations arrive, they should be read alongside numerical weather predictions and official observations.
The contract will settle to a single official observing source specified in the market rules (commonly an NWS/NOAA station or a named dataset); check the contract text to see the exact station or dataset used for final settlement.
The market defines the highest temperature according to the contract: typically the maximum reported during the local calendar day (00:00–23:59 local time) at the specified observation site and in the unit (°F or °C) listed in the contract—confirm the exact definitions in the event rules.
Settlement follows the contract's data provider and its revision policy; many contracts allow for final settlement after any routine post-event quality-control revisions by the specified source, so check the settlement timeline and revision windows in the market rules.
'Closes: TBD' means the marketplace has not yet published a fixed trading cutoff; in similar weather markets, trading typically closes either shortly before the start of the measurement day or after the forecast window closes—monitor the event page for an official close time and any announcements from the platform.
Signals to watch include an upstream persistent ridge or amplified southerly flow in model runs, rapid drying and clearing in forecasts (favoring strong daytime heating), and ensemble agreement on a warm advection event; check updated numerical model guidance and official NWS forecasts as the day approaches.