| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49° to 50° | 53% | 54¢ | 59¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 48° or below | 3% | 1¢ | 3¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 51° to 52° | 37% | 30¢ | 39¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 55° to 56° | 1% | 1¢ | 3¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 53° to 54° | 4% | 3¢ | 5¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 57° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature range will be the highest observed in Seattle on March 6, 2026; it matters to traders and weather-sensitive participants who want to hedge or speculate on that single-day outcome.
Early March in Seattle is a transition month with high variability: temperatures can be moderated by Pacific air masses or boosted by inland warm advection under a high-pressure ridge. Historical March 6 readings have ranged from near-freezing to unseasonably warm depending on synoptic setup, so short-term forecast changes can materially alter expectations.
Market prices aggregate available information and updates as forecasts, observations, and news arrive; interpret prices as the market consensus about which outcome bin is most likely to produce the day’s maximum temperature, and expect them to change as new model runs and observations come in.
The market’s resolution clause specifies the official reporting station and data source; check the event details on the KALSHI page for the named station and the official weather service (for example, an NWS local official station) that will be used for settlement.
Typically, 'highest temperature' refers to the maximum air temperature recorded during the local calendar day (00:00–23:59 local time) at the designated reporting station; confirm the exact time window and local timezone in the market’s resolution rules.
Resolution uses the official recorded value and any rounding conventions stated in the event rules (e.g., nearest whole degree); read the market’s settlement rules to see how raw observations are rounded or truncated before assigning an outcome.
Tie-breaker and payout procedures are defined in the market’s resolution policy—common approaches include using the exact reported value before rounding or following a predetermined tie rule—so consult the event’s official resolution text for the procedure.
The platform will announce the market close time (currently TBD); prices will be most sensitive in the days to hours before March 6 as short-range models and observations (nowcasts, HRRR, local observations) refine frontal timing and cloud cover, while medium-range models (GFS/ECMWF) set the broader synoptic expectation earlier.