| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 53° to 54° | 7% | 6¢ | 7¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| 49° to 50° | 38% | 36¢ | 40¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 47° to 48° | 2% | 5¢ | 6¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 51° to 52° | 44% | 39¢ | 45¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 55° or above | 3% | 2¢ | 3¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 46° or below | 3% | 3¢ | 4¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
This market asks traders to predict which temperature-range outcome will represent the highest air temperature recorded in Seattle on March 5, 2026. It matters because daily high temperatures affect local energy demand, transportation, and public planning and reflect short-term weather pattern shifts.
Seattle's early March climate is highly variable: maritime influence from the Pacific moderates extremes but Pacific storms, frontal passages, and occasional warm inland advection can produce a wide range of highs. Interannual drivers (for example ENSO-related variability) and short-term features like blocking highs or strong onshore/offshore flow shape whether a day will be cooler or unusually warm. The market lists six mutually exclusive outcomes that span different temperature ranges; traders use evolving forecasts and observations to update positions.
Market prices reflect the aggregation of trader expectations about which temperature-range outcome will be realized and update as forecasts and observations change. Use prices as a realtime consensus signal while relying on official meteorological products for operational decisions.
The market close time is listed on the KALSHI market page and currently shows as TBD; check the exchange for the definitive close time, which may be set before or at the start of the observation day.
Settlement follows the official data source and station specified in the contract terms on the market page (commonly an NWS/NOAA observing station or airport ASOS); verify the exact station and data provider in the market documentation.
The outcome refers to the maximum temperature recorded during the 24-hour period defined in the contract (typically the local calendar day) at the specified station; the units (°F or °C) are stated on the market page.
Settlement uses the final official determination from the referenced data provider according to the contract's settlement rules; the market documentation explains how post-event revisions are treated.
Consider that Seattle in March is moderated by maritime influence but can have rapid swings due to passing storms or warm advection; reviewing recent NWS forecasts, regional model guidance, and local climatology will help frame whether conditions favor cooler or warmer-than-typical highs.