| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 51° to 52° | 97% | 95¢ | 97¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| 53° to 54° | 4% | 4¢ | 5¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| 49° to 50° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| 57° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 55° to 56° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 48° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
This market asks which of six outcomes will represent the highest temperature recorded in Seattle on March 4, 2026. The result matters for short-term planning around energy use, travel, outdoor events, and local weather risk management.
Seattle sits in a maritime-influenced climate where early March can swing between cool, cloudy conditions and brief warm spells depending on Pacific storm tracks and atmospheric patterns. Seasonal factors such as the state of the Pacific and large-scale circulation patterns can modulate the likelihood of unusually warm or cool readings. Climate change has increased the frequency of temperature extremes, which can alter the historical baseline for a given calendar day.
Market odds reflect the aggregation of traders' beliefs about which temperature outcome will occur and will move as new forecast information and observations arrive. Use the market prices as a dynamic signal of collective expectations, remembering they update with weather model outputs and real-time data.
The market's close time is listed on the market page (currently TBD). The official highest temperature is determined for the local calendar day March 4 at the observation station specified in the contract; settlement timing follows the market's rules and may wait for quality-controlled official data.
The contract specifies the exact observing site used for settlement. Many Seattle-focused contracts use the official National Weather Service observation site for the Seattle metro area; check the market description to confirm the named station.
Settlement uses the definition spelled out in the contract: the calendar-day maximum at the specified station in local standard time, with the units and rounding conventions detailed on the market page. Review the settlement clause for the precise measurement rules.
Major changes in guidance about large-scale ridging versus troughing, shifts in the timing or strength of an approaching front, model convergence on warm advection or southerly flow, and updated surface observations that indicate an incoming warm or cool air mass will materially affect expectations.
Settlement timing depends on the market's stated procedures; some markets settle soon after the daily observation is available, others wait for NWS quality-control or a specified certification window. See the contract’s settlement timeline for the exact waiting period.