| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 51° to 52° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $26K | Trade → |
| 53° to 54° | 98% | 86¢ | 96¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| 55° to 56° | 4% | 1¢ | 6¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| 57° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 3¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| 49° to 50° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 48° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
This market asks which of six outcome bins will contain Seattle's highest observed temperature on March 3, 2026. It matters for weather hedging, short-term climate interest, and testing how well traders interpret evolving forecasts.
Seattle's climate is maritime, so early March is a transition month with frequent Pacific storms, marine intrusions, and occasional warm ridges that can produce unseasonable highs. Large-scale patterns (seasonal SST anomalies, jet stream configuration) and day-to-day synoptic setups both influence the likely temperature range on a specific date.
Market prices aggregate traders' information and forecasts about which temperature bin will be realized; they will move as new model output, observations, and forecasts become available. Use prices as a real-time summary of collective expectations, while consulting official forecasts and observation rules for the settlement definition.
Settlement is based on the observation site and reporting convention specified in the event rules—typically the official NWS/NOAA reporting station designated on the market page and the daily maximum temperature recorded for that calendar date in local time; consult the event's rule text for the precise station and measurement standard.
The event page currently lists the close time as TBD; the platform will publish the exact close time before trading ends, so monitor the market page or platform notices for updates.
The six outcomes correspond to the explicit temperature bins shown on this market's outcome list; check the market interface to see each outcome's labeled temperature range and how they partition possible highs for March 3, 2026.
Short-range numerical weather prediction (NWP) model runs (e.g., deterministic and ensemble output), updated NWS local forecasts and discussions, observations from Seattle-area observing sites, and high-resolution meso models or soundings that change expectations for cloud cover and wind direction.
Use climatology as a baseline to understand typical variability in early March, but give greater weight to the current synoptic forecast and recent model trends because single-day extremes are often dictated by short-term atmospheric setup rather than long-term averages.