| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 43° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 44° to 45° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 46° to 47° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 48° to 49° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 50° to 51° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 52° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks traders to predict the highest observed air temperature in Seattle on March 29, 2026. The outcome matters for local planning, energy demand, health advisories, and event logistics that depend on daily temperature extremes.
Late March in the Seattle region sits in a transitional season where Pacific storm systems, transient ridges of high pressure, and marine influences create large day-to-day variability. Daily maxima are determined by the synoptic pattern (warm ridging versus onshore flow), cloud cover, and the timing of any frontal passages; long‑term warming shifts the baseline but day‑to‑day weather still dominates this far in advance. Market participants will watch model guidance, local observations, and mesoscale forecasts as the date approaches.
Market prices reflect the collective expectation of which temperature outcome is most likely and will update as weather forecasts and observations change. They should be read as a real‑time summary of information rather than a deterministic forecast; always check the market page for settlement rules and the designated observation station.
Settlement details (which station and dataset) should be listed on the market page; many weather markets use the official National Weather Service/NOAA observation at the designated Seattle station (e.g., the ASOS/airport site). If the event page does not specify, contact the platform for the official source before trading.
This market will present discrete outcomes (for example temperature bins or exact‑value options) that correspond to the highest observed temperature on the specified date and station; consult the event page to see the exact outcome definitions and their settlement rules.
Large‑scale pattern shifts weeks in advance set the background, but model guidance and ensemble spreads become increasingly influential about 5–10 days out, with deterministic model runs and mesoscale forecasts (and therefore market moves) typically strongest in the 72–24 hours before the date as timing of fronts and cloud cover solidifies.
Local factors like proximity to Puget Sound, elevation, urban heat islands, valley drainage, and station siting can change the reported maximum by several degrees locally; because settlement uses a specific observation site, those local conditions around that station determine the winning outcome.
Use March climatology as a baseline to set reasonable bounds and understand typical variability, but combine that with current seasonal indicators (e.g., ENSO state) and short‑range model forecasts, since daily extremes are driven primarily by the synoptic setup on the day in question.