| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 51° to 52° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 53° to 54° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 55° to 56° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 57° to 58° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 59° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature observed in Seattle will be on March 28, 2026; it matters for local decision-makers, utilities, outdoor events, and anyone monitoring short-term weather risk. Market prices aggregate expectations about that single-day outcome and respond to changing forecasts and observations.
Late March in Seattle is a transitional period from cooler, wetter winter patterns toward milder spring conditions, so daily highs can swing depending on the presence of Pacific storms or transient high-pressure ridging. Typical late-March conditions tend to be cool and maritime-influenced, but occasional warm inland air masses, downslope winds, or unusually strong sunshine can push temperatures above the seasonal norm. Interannual factors such as the broader Pacific climate state and recent patterns leading up to the date also affect expectations.
Prices in this prediction market represent the collective view of which temperature-range outcome is most likely given current information; interpret them as a real-time consensus signal that will change as forecasts, observations, and model guidance evolve.
Settlement follows the contract specifications: the market uses a specified official observing station and defined measurement method (e.g., 1-minute or hourly air temperature). Check the event’s contract page for the exact data source and observation protocols (typically an NWS/NOAA reporting station).
Trading close time is listed on the market page (here it is TBD); final settlement is published after the official observation for that calendar date is available and the exchange processes the specified source data — timing can be hours to a few days after the date depending on data release procedures.
Review historical daily maximums for March 28 at the contract’s official station, recent late-March trends for the past few weeks, local climatology for late March, and multi-decade records from NOAA/NCEI or the local NWS office to understand typical variability and extremes.
Monitor global and ensemble models (e.g., ECMWF and GFS ensembles), high-resolution regional models and short-range convection-allowing guidance, and NWS local forecasts and discussions — watch trends across models and ensemble spreads for confidence and timing of fronts.
If a front or cloud band arrives earlier in the day it can suppress daytime heating and keep the maximum lower; if the atmosphere remains dry and sunny until late afternoon, the daytime maximum can be higher. The exact cutoff between outcomes will depend on the contract’s specified temperature ranges and the official observation timing.