| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 52° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 53° to 54° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 55° to 56° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 57° to 58° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 59° to 60° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 61° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest officially reported air temperature in Seattle will be on March 27, 2026. It matters for short-term weather-sensitive decisions and for participants who want to express views on near-term temperature risk in the Pacific Northwest.
Late March in Seattle sits between winter and spring, so temperatures can swing quickly depending on Pacific storm tracks, spring sunshine, and onshore flow. Long-term warming trends have shifted the baseline upward over decades, but day-to-day outcomes remain driven by synoptic weather patterns and local effects.
Market prices represent the collective expectation for the recorded maximum temperature on that date, based on available observations and forecasts; they update as new model runs, observations, and official guidance arrive. Interpret prices as a real-time summary of market sentiment, not as a guaranteed forecast.
The market will be resolved using the official observing station and reporting agency specified in the event's resolution rules—typically the National Weather Service/NOAA designated station for Seattle. Check the event description for the exact station and dataset that will be used for settlement.
The market close time is listed as TBD; settlement timing depends on the official reporting schedule of the designated observing agency. Final daily maximum temperatures are generally available after the end of the UTC day and once the official daily summary is published—refer to the event rules for specific cutoff and resolution windows.
Use climatological normals and recent multi-year averages for late March as a baseline, and consult historical daily records for March 27 to understand where a given outcome sits relative to past variability. Also consider recent trends—decadal warming can shift expectations compared with older records.
Short- and medium-range numerical weather prediction models (such as major global models and high-resolution regional runs), local National Weather Service forecasts, satellite and surface observations, and ensemble guidance are all useful—especially in the 1–5 day lead time when timing of fronts and cloud cover become clearer.
Shifts in the timing of a frontal passage, rapid changes in cloud cover or precipitation, sudden onshore/offshore wind shifts, and last-minute station issues or exposure changes can all change the daily maximum; check the event's stated measurement/averaging method because instrument reporting conventions can affect the recorded peak.