| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 48° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 49° to 50° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 51° to 52° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 53° to 54° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 55° to 56° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 57° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature recorded in Seattle on March 26, 2026 will be. It matters to traders, event planners, utilities, and anyone interested in short-term climate/weather risk for that specific day.
Seattle in late March can see large swings between cool, cloudy maritime conditions and brief warm, sunny spells driven by Pacific air masses; seasonal variability and occasional early-spring warm fronts make the day's maximum hard to predict. This event aggregates market expectations about that single-day maximum using the contract and data source specified by KALSHI.
Market prices reflect the collective expectations of participants and will move as forecasts, observations, and new information arrive; consult the event's settlement rules on the KALSHI page to understand how the final trading outcomes map to the observed temperature.
The contract's settlement rules on the KALSHI event page specify the official data source, station, and measurement method used to determine the daily maximum; check that page for the definitive source (often an official NWS/NOAA observational station).
Each outcome corresponds to a temperature bucket or range listed on the event page; after the official maximum is identified from the specified data source, the single outcome whose range contains that value is declared the winning outcome.
This event's close time is listed as TBD; typically trading closes before the start of the measurement day and settlement occurs after the official observatory publishes the daily maximum, per KALSHI's settlement timeline—see the event page for exact deadlines.
Price moves reflect participants updating expectations in response to new model runs, observations, and forecast discussions; large updates often follow major model consensus shifts, observed frontal passages, or rapid changes in forecast confidence.
KALSHI's contract terms include contingency procedures for missing or compromised data (for example, using alternate official stations or archival datasets); consult the event's settlement provisions for the exact fallback and dispute resolution rules.