| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 44° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 45° to 46° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 47° to 48° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 49° to 50° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 51° to 52° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 53° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature bucket will contain the highest observed temperature in Seattle on March 25, 2026. Outcomes are useful to people hedging weather risk or tracking expectations for an unusually warm or cool spring day.
Seattle's March climate is influenced by the Northeast Pacific and shows strong day-to-day variability from passing frontal systems, marine influence, and occasional early-season warm spells. Broad climate trends have increased the frequency of warm anomalies, but individual daily highs remain driven by the short-term synoptic pattern. Markets for a single calendar day focus on that day’s synoptic setup and the official observing station that the contract specifies.
Market prices represent the collective expectation of which temperature-range outcome will be realized; they move as new model runs, observations, and information arrive. Prices are not guarantees but indicators of the crowd’s best guess given available information and liquidity.
Resolution follows the contract’s resolution clause: the highest official temperature reported for the specified local calendar day at the named observing station will determine the winning outcome. Check the contract text to confirm the exact observation window and source used for settlement.
The six outcomes divide the range of possible highest temperatures on that date into mutually exclusive bins; exactly which temperature values fall into each bin is specified in the market description and determines which outcome pays if the observed maximum falls within that bin.
The market contract names the official reporting station or dataset; many weather contracts reference the NOAA/National Weather Service or a specific official station (for the Seattle area frequently the SEA airport station), so review the contract’s resolution clause to identify the exact source.
Major determinants in the days immediately preceding March 25 include the arrival timing of any fronts or ridges, late-model shifts in forecast guidance, cloud cover/precipitation trends, and real-time temperature observations; updates within 48 hours of the target date typically have the largest impact on market movement.
Participants range from retail traders and weather-focused speculators to professionals hedging weather-dependent operations (utilities, event planners, agriculture). Prices often show more volatility several days out and generally converge as the event approaches and forecast certainty improves, with the final day driving the largest short-term moves.