| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50° to 51° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 54° to 55° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 49° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 52° to 53° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 56° to 57° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 58° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest measured air temperature in Seattle will be on March 24, 2026; it matters for traders who want to express views on short-term weather outcomes and for people who track event-level climate variability.
Seattle's late-March temperatures sit in a transitional season where Pacific weather systems often produce large day-to-day swings. Longer-term warming trends have nudged seasonal baselines upward, but individual-day outcomes remain dominated by synoptic-scale weather patterns and local effects.
Market odds reflect participants' aggregated expectations about which temperature range will be realized and will change as new observations and forecasts arrive; consult the market page for the current prices and the contract's settlement rules.
Settlement will follow the official data source and measurement definition specified in the market's rules — typically an official NWS/NOAA observational station for the Seattle metro area and the highest reported air temperature during the designated local date; check the contract page for the exact station and instrument used.
The market uses the time window defined in its rules (usually the local calendar date in Pacific Time for the designated observation station); confirm the precise start and end times on the market's settlement specification to know which observations count.
The contract is split into six mutually exclusive outcomes that partition possible highest-temperature results for March 24, 2026; the market page lists each outcome label and the temperature range or condition it represents.
Traders typically monitor National Weather Service/NOAA observations for the Seattle area, local airport ASOS/METAR reports, and short-range forecast model guidance; the market's rules identify the authoritative source that will be used for final settlement.
Long-term warming shifts the climatological baseline and can make higher temperatures more common over decades, but the realized highest temperature on a single day is primarily driven by short-term synoptic weather, local conditions, and timing of sunlight and clouds.