| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 58° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 52° to 53° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 49° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 56° to 57° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 54° to 55° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 50° to 51° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature recorded in Seattle on March 23, 2026 will be. It matters for weather-sensitive businesses, researchers, and anyone tracking near-term climate variability in the region.
Seattle has a maritime climate with a strong Pacific influence, so March temperatures can swing with incoming frontal systems and occasional warm inland surges. Seasonal signals (for example, ENSO-related patterns) and recent trends toward warmer and more variable conditions can shift the baseline for late-winter and early-spring temperatures.
Market prices aggregate participants' expectations about the most likely temperature outcome on that date and update as new model guidance and observations arrive. Treat prices as a real-time consensus signal rather than a fixed forecast.
Settlement uses the observation, station, or dataset specified in the market's official rules; consult the contract terms on the market page to see which weather station or authority will determine the highest recorded temperature for that date.
The market close is listed as TBD; outcome settlement generally occurs after the official daily observations for March 23, 2026 are published by the designated authority. Check the market page for final close and settlement timing updates.
Each of the six mutually exclusive outcomes corresponds to the temperature bins or specific values defined on the contract page; only the single outcome that matches the official highest temperature on March 23, 2026 will resolve as the winner.
Seasonal signals shift the background odds toward warmer or cooler conditions but do not determine day-to-day weather; use large-scale indicators to set a baseline and combine them with short-range model forecasts and local climatology for the specific date.
Participants include weather traders, local utilities, event organizers, agricultural stakeholders, and researchers who use the market to hedge weather exposure, test forecasts, or obtain a crowd-sourced temperature expectation for that specific date.