| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 48° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 57° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 53° to 54° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 51° to 52° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 55° to 56° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 49° to 50° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest temperature recorded in Seattle on March 22, 2026 will be, letting participants express expectations about a single-day local weather outcome. It matters for short-term planning in sectors like energy, transportation, and event management that are sensitive to day-to-day temperature extremes.
Late March is a transitional season in the Pacific Northwest where temperatures can swing between cool, wet conditions and brief warm spells depending on the Pacific storm track and air mass advection. Long-term climate trends and interannual patterns (e.g., large-scale Pacific variability) influence the baseline for March temperatures, but the daily maximum is primarily determined by the synoptic-scale setup in the days leading up to March 22.
Market prices represent the collective expectation of which temperature outcome will occur; they should be used as a real-time signal alongside meteorological forecasts and official observations. Movements in prices typically reflect updates in weather model guidance, observational reports, and changing atmospheric conditions.
The contract settles using the official reporting station named in the market rules—typically the designated NWS/NOAA station for the Seattle area. Check the market's contract text for the exact station identifier that will be used for settlement.
The outcome is based on the official 24-hour local calendar day as specified by the contract (00:00 to 23:59:59 local time). Confirm whether the contract references local standard/time or UTC and whether daylight saving time applies to that date.
Settlement relies on the authoritative observational data source named in the contract—commonly official daily summaries from the National Weather Service / NOAA or the designated local meteorological office. The market uses that official record as the final arbiter.
The market typically waits for the official daily summary to be published and for any verification procedures; this often occurs within a few days but the exact settlement timing is specified in the exchange's rules for the market.
Yes. Local microclimates (downtown vs. shoreline vs. hills), instrument placement, and sheltering can produce differences. The settled value reflects only the measurement at the contract's designated official station, not a citywide average.