| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 54° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 50° to 51° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 46° to 47° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 45° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 52° to 53° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 48° to 49° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature range will be the highest observed in Seattle on March 21, 2026 — a short-term, weather-driven event that matters to traders who specialize in climate and weather outcomes and to anyone tracking near-term temperature variability in the Pacific Northwest.
Seattle’s day-to-day temperatures in March are influenced by large-scale Pacific air masses, seasonal transitions, and coastal effects; March 21 sits near the spring equinox when variability between cool, marine-influenced days and warmer, inland-flow days is common. Historical records and recent warming trends provide context, but individual day outcomes are dominated by the synoptic weather pattern that arrives in the days immediately before and on March 21.
Market prices represent collective expectations about the most likely temperature range given available information; interpret them as a market consensus that will update as forecasts and observations evolve. For settlement specifics, always consult the market’s rules to see which observing station and time-window determine the official outcome.
The market outcome is determined by the specific observing station, measurement method, and time window defined in the event’s settlement rules; typically this is the official maximum daily temperature reported for the named station during local calendar day 21 March 2026. Check the event’s published rules to confirm the designated data source and definition.
The event listing indicates the close time as TBD; the market will announce a trading close time before settlement. Settlement usually occurs after the official observing agency publishes the daily maximum for the relevant station, so review the event page for the precise close and settlement schedule once posted.
Settlement will use the observing network specified in the market’s rules (for example, an NWS/NOAA station, ASOS, or a designated cooperative station). The event page or rule text names the exact source — consult that text to know which instrument record will be authoritative.
Expect meaningful updates as deterministic and ensemble model guidance sharpens: synoptic-scale forecasts typically gain reliability 3–7 days ahead, with day-of changes driven by short-range models and observations. Market prices will reflect new model runs, satellite/radar data, and shifts in expected frontal timing.
Use climatology (long-term March normals and extremes) as a baseline to judge how unusual a given outcome would be, and combine that with current seasonal trends and recent weather model forecasts; remember that climatology informs prior expectations but does not replace short-range forecast signals that often determine a single-day maximum.