| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 51° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 52° to 53° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 60° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 58° to 59° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 54° to 55° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 56° to 57° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature recorded in Seattle will be on March 20, 2026. It matters for traders and forecasters because single‑day temperature extremes reflect short‑term weather patterns and can affect energy demand, travel, and local operations.
Seattle has a maritime climate with large day‑to‑day variability in spring; March can bring chilly, cloudy conditions or brief warm spells, depending on synoptic patterns. Large‑scale drivers such as the position of Pacific storm tracks and seasonal ENSO conditions (El Niño/La Niña) influence the likelihood of unusually warm or cool days. Local factors like urban heat island effects and the exact observing station also affect the recorded maximum.
Market odds represent the collective view of traders about how likely each outcome is, based on available information and expectations; they are not guarantees. Use odds alongside independent weather forecasts and the market's stated settlement rules when forming a view.
Settlement will follow the market's stated settlement source and rules on the event page; typically this means the highest official 1‑minute or hourly air temperature observation recorded within the market's defined local time window on March 20 at the specified station or dataset. Always check the event page for the precise definition used by this market.
The market's event page lists the official settlement source (for example, a particular NOAA/NWS station or climate dataset). Traders should verify that listed source on the Kalshi event page before trading, because different stations in the Seattle area can report different maxima.
Settlement typically occurs after the designated observing agency posts the daily summary for the specified station; the exchange will confirm settlement on the event page. You can independently check the official reported value through the listed source, such as the NOAA/NWS daily climate report for the named station.
The applicable 24‑hour window (for example, local 00:00–23:59) is defined in the market's settlement rules on the event page. Because definitions can vary, confirm the exact local time interval used by this market before making trading decisions.
Useful short‑range indicators include the presence and timing of an upper‑level ridge or warm advection, forecasts for cloud cover and precipitation on the day, offshore vs. onshore low‑level wind direction (offshore winds favor warmer inland readings), and model agreement on the timing of any frontal passage.