| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 52° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 53° to 54° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 55° to 56° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 61° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 59° to 60° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 57° to 58° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which outcome will correspond to the highest air temperature recorded in Seattle on March 19, 2026. It matters to traders and weather-sensitive businesses because it summarizes expectations about that day's thermal conditions.
Seattle's March climate sits in a transitional season where the Pacific storm track, spring sunshine, and occasional offshore warmth can all influence daily highs. Synoptic-scale setups (ridges, troughs, frontal passages) drive most of the day-to-day variability, while long-term warming shifts the baseline slowly over decades. The market is hosted on Kalshi and will settle to the official observation source named in the market rules.
Market odds reflect the collective expectation of traders given current information and will update as forecasts and observations change; they are a real-time signal, not a guaranteed outcome.
Trading close is set by Kalshi and listed on the market page; final settlement will be to the official temperature observation for the local calendar date March 19, 2026, as specified in the market rules and the authoritative data source.
The market uses the specific authoritative source named in its settlement rules (typically an official NOAA/NWS station or dataset); consult the market's settlement source field for the exact station or dataset that will be used.
Settlement follows the procedures of the designated authoritative data provider; if the primary observation is invalid or withheld, the market will follow the contingency and tie-breaker rules described on the market page.
Watch short-range model guidance and forecast discussion for the presence and strength of a surface high or warm advection, frontal timing, cloud cover trends, and wind direction changes—these control daytime warming and therefore the likely daily maximum.
Use historical climatology to set context for what is typical on that calendar date and to understand variability, but weigh recent forecasted synoptic conditions more heavily because year-to-year weather patterns drive the actual daily maximum.