| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 57° to 58° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 53° to 54° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 52° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 61° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 59° to 60° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 55° to 56° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks participants to predict the highest air temperature recorded in Seattle on March 18, 2026. Accurate forecasts matter for energy demand, event planning, public safety, and as a short-term indicator of weather variability.
Seattle sits in a maritime climate where March is a transitional month between winter and spring, so day-to-day temperatures can swing with the passage of Pacific weather systems. Synoptic-scale patterns (storm tracks, the jet stream) and seasonal modes such as El Niño/La Niña influence the likelihood of warmer or cooler conditions. Recent multi-year warming trends can shift the baseline, but short-term weather is still dominated by specific storms and air-mass advection.
Market odds aggregate traders’ assessments of how likely each outcome is given available forecasts and uncertainty; they will change as new model runs and observations arrive. Use the market as a real-time summary of expert and public expectations, not a guarantee of the settled result.
Settlement follows the data source and station specified in the contract terms on the trading platform; reviewers should check the event’s official rules to see which NOAA/NWS or local observation site will be used for the final value.
The platform will publish the market close time and settlement timeline in the event listing; final settlement typically occurs only after the designated official daily maximum is available from the specified observing agency.
New model runs, satellite and radar observations, and surface reports narrow or widen uncertainty and drive traders to update positions, so market prices will often move in step with improving short-range forecasts.
Yes — station relocations, sensor malfunctions, or documentation updates can affect recorded values; the contract’s settlement rules should state how such issues are handled (for example, using an alternate official station or following agency corrections).
Useful context includes typical early‑spring variability for the Seattle area, recent multi-week temperature anomalies, the latest seasonal outlooks, and current model ensemble spreads and trends for the days immediately preceding March 18.