| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 51° to 52° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 55° to 56° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 53° to 54° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 59° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 57° to 58° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 50° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature recorded in Seattle on March 17, 2026 will be and aggregates traders' expectations about that daily maximum. Outcomes matter because single-day temperature extremes can affect energy use, travel, event planning, and local infrastructure decisions.
Seattle in mid-March sits in a transitional season: it can be cool and wet under Pacific storms or relatively warm during brief ridging events off the coast. Large-scale climate patterns (e.g., ENSO-related shifts), sea surface temperature anomalies, and the exact synoptic setup in the days leading up to March 17 all influence how warm or cool the day may be.
Market prices summarize participant beliefs based on the latest forecasts, observations, and risk appetite; they update as new model runs and observations arrive. Use prices as a real-time consensus signal, while remembering that short-term weather forecasts can change rapidly as new data come in.
Resolution timing, the official observation site, and the exact definition of 'highest temperature' are specified in the market's resolution rules on the platform; typically it means the highest verified air temperature measured at the designated official weather station during the local calendar day, but check the contract text or contact the platform if it is not explicit.
Markets commonly reference a National Weather Service or NOAA-designated observing station (for Seattle that is often Sea-Tac/ASOS or another NWS-coordinated station) or an NCEI dataset; the market page should list the exact source used for settlement.
Broad pattern tendencies can appear more than a week out, but actionable, single-day temperature guidance generally improves in the 3–7 day range, with the highest confidence arriving in the 48–72 hours before the target date; ensemble products can provide early indications of uncertainty earlier than deterministic runs.
Yes. Mesoscale processes such as timing of the sea breeze, local wind direction, urban heat island effects, cloud cover, and the exact placement of a front can all cause the official station reading to differ from broader regional model forecasts.
March is a highly variable month in Seattle; climatology provides a baseline expectation and historical extremes give context for how unusual a particular outcome would be, but short-term synoptic conditions and interannual climate drivers ultimately determine whether March 17 will be near typical values or an outlier.