| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 51° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 49° to 50° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 42° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 47° to 48° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 43° to 44° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 45° to 46° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which of six outcome ranges will contain the highest air temperature observed in Seattle on March 15, 2026; it matters because day-to-day temperature outcomes reflect weather patterns that affect energy use, transportation, and public comfort. Traders use available forecasts and observations to express expectations about that single calendar day's peak temperature.
Seattle sits in a maritime climate with strong influence from Pacific air masses, so March temperatures can swing between cool, cloudy conditions and relatively warm, sunny spells depending on the synoptic pattern. Seasonal factors such as the state of the Pacific (e.g., El Niño/La Niña), the presence of atmospheric ridges or troughs, and short-term model guidance all shape the likely range of highs for mid‑March. Local station siting and the official observation source named in the market rules will determine the exact value used for resolution.
Market prices aggregate traders' views about which temperature range will be the highest reading on that date; watch price moves as weather forecasts, model runs, and observations change. Consult the event's resolution rules to know exactly which station and timestamp determine the winning outcome.
The official source is the one specified in the market's resolution rules on the event page; exchanges commonly use an NWS/NOAA official climate station serving Seattle (or the airport observing site) but you must confirm the exact station listed for this market.
The event refers to the calendar date March 15, 2026 in local Seattle time. Note that March 15, 2026 falls after the U.S. switch to Daylight Saving Time, so local time will be Pacific Daylight Time (UTC‑7); verify the market's resolution rules for any specific measurement window.
Resolution follows the contingency and tie‑breaking procedures in the market's rules; common approaches include using an alternate nearby official station or a vetted reanalysis/source designated by the exchange. Check the event page or contact the exchange for the stated fallback protocol.
Broad synoptic trends and probabilistic guidance can be informative 7–10 days out, while deterministic model runs and surface observations generally offer the most precise guidance in the 1–3 day window before the date; monitor successive model ensembles and local forecasts as the day approaches.
Historical climatology provides a baseline expectation and shows the typical range and variability for mid‑March; compare recent years and long‑term normals to understand whether an outcome would be typical or anomalous, and consult official station climatological records for precise historical values.