| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 51° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 49° to 50° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 42° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 43° to 44° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 45° to 46° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 47° to 48° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature observed in Seattle will be on March 14, 2026; it matters to traders and weather-aware stakeholders because temperature extremes affect energy demand, outdoor events, and local travel.
Seattle in mid-March is generally in early spring, with frequent marine air and a wide range of possible outcomes from cool, damp conditions to occasional warm spells when Pacific ridging occurs. Seasonal drivers (Pacific sea-surface temperatures and the large-scale jet stream) plus short-term weather systems determine day-to-day temperatures; longer-term warming trends have made warm outliers more likely than in past decades.
Market odds are a real-time aggregation of participant expectations and will change as new forecasts and observations arrive; use them as a snapshot of collective expectation rather than a fixed forecast.
The event covers the calendar day of March 14, 2026 in local Seattle time (Pacific); the highest reported hourly or instantaneous air temperature during that 00:00–23:59 local period at the contract's official observation site will determine the outcome.
Resolution will use the official station specified in the contract rules — typically the primary ASOS/METAR site for the Seattle area (check the market's rule page for the exact station and data source).
The market closes and resolves according to the exchange's scheduled close and the contract's resolution rules; resolution usually occurs after the official daily observations and any verification window defined by the exchange, so consult the market listing for the exact timing and dispute procedures.
Watch short-range weather model runs (high-resolution ensemble and deterministic), NWS forecast updates for Seattle, METAR/ASOS observations, and synoptic analyses for changing ridge/trough patterns; markets will update as these data and forecasts evolve.
Mid-March historically shows a broad range of possible highs, with many years dominated by cool, maritime conditions and some years showing anomalous warmth when Pacific ridging occurs; understanding that variability and the current seasonal pattern helps interpret market moves without relying on static historical averages.