| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45° to 46° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 39° to 40° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 43° to 44° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 41° to 42° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 38° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 47° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which value range will be the highest official air temperature recorded in Seattle on March 13, 2026; resolution will follow the contract's specified observing station and data source. It matters because March temperatures influence local energy use, transportation decisions, and short-term agricultural and outdoor activity planning.
Seattle sits in a maritime climate where early March is a transitional month that can deliver cool, wet conditions or an unexpectedly warm day if a Pacific ridge builds. Weather on any given March day is controlled by the position of large-scale Pacific systems, and long-term warming trends and interannual drivers (e.g., ENSO phases) shift the baseline distribution of possible highs.
Market prices aggregate participants' expectations about the highest official recorded temperature during the contract's measurement window; treat prices as a real-time consensus that can move as forecasts and observational information change.
The contract's settlement definition names the definitive source and station; check the market page on Kalshi for the exact station and dataset (typically an official NWS/NOAA or ASOS station) that will be used for settlement.
The market's settlement rules specify the precise start and end times and the time zone used to define March 13; consult the event's resolution text on the Kalshi page to see the measurement window.
The contract and platform settlement procedures describe tie‑breaking and handling of missing or flagged data—Kalshi typically follows the official data provider's quality control and any alternate data sources noted in the settlement terms.
Resolution timing depends on when the official observational record is published and Kalshi's processing schedule; the event page or Kalshi's settlement policy will provide the expected timeline for posting results and settling positions.
Historical climatology provides context about typical and extreme values for mid‑March in Seattle and can be combined with short‑range model forecasts to form a view, but the realized value depends primarily on the specific synoptic setup on that date.