| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 48° to 49° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 46° to 47° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 54° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 45° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 52° to 53° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 50° to 51° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature category will be the highest recorded in Seattle on March 12, 2026 — it aggregates traders' expectations about that day's maximum temperature. The outcome is useful to people tracking short-term weather risk, local impacts, and how forecasts evolve ahead of the date.
Seattle in March is a transitional month with high variability driven by Pacific weather systems; some years feature cool, wet conditions while others see anomalously warm days when upper-level ridging develops. Large-scale climate drivers (e.g., Pacific sea surface temperature patterns) and the timing of individual frontal systems both shape day-to-day maximum temperatures.
Market prices reflect the crowd's aggregated expectations about which temperature range will occur and will move as new model runs, observations, and forecasts arrive. Treat market odds as a real-time signal of consensus belief rather than a guaranteed outcome.
The closing time is currently listed as TBD on the event page; the platform will publish the official trading close and any last-trade deadlines in the contract details prior to resolution.
The six outcomes correspond to the mutually exclusive temperature categories specified in the contract; see the market page or rules for the exact temperature boundaries that define each outcome.
The contract's resolution section names the official source (for example, a specified NOAA/NWS station or an official NWS dataset); check that section to see exactly which station or dataset will be used.
The resolution rules on the event page specify the exact local time window and time zone used for 'on Mar 12, 2026' (commonly a local calendar day), so consult those rules for the authoritative definition.
New runs of major numerical weather models, high-resolution regional model output, updated surface and upper-air observations, and changes to the forecast timing of fronts or warm-air intrusions typically drive market movement, especially within 48–72 hours of the target date.