| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55° or above | 2% | 2¢ | 3¢ | — | $9K | Trade → |
| 51° to 52° | 64% | 63¢ | 71¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| 53° to 54° | 25% | 13¢ | 25¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| 49° to 50° | 9% | 7¢ | 12¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 46° or below | 4% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 47° to 48° | 2% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest temperature recorded in Seattle on March 11, 2026 will be. It matters for weather-sensitive decisions, short-term agricultural and energy planning, and for traders who follow near-term climate variability.
Seattle in March is a transition month with variable conditions driven by Pacific storms, late-season cold air intrusions, or early warm Pacific ridging. Recent years have produced both cool, wet periods and isolated warm spells; local factors such as sea-breeze suppression or offshore flow can produce large day-to-day swings. The reported maximum depends on which official observing station and dataset the market uses for settlement.
Market prices indicate trader consensus about which temperature outcome will occur and update as forecasts and observations change. Always check the market page for the outcome labels and the settlement rules that map observed temperatures to outcomes.
The market settles to the specific source named in the KALSHI market description (for example an NWS/NOAA observing station or a specified official dataset). Consult the market page to see the designated station or dataset before trading; if it's not clear, contact KALSHI support for clarification.
The market currently lists the close as TBD; KALSHI will publish the trading close time on the market page. Outcome settlement typically follows publication of the official daily maximum for March 11 by the designated observing agency and may occur later that day or within a short window after official data are posted.
Each of the six outcomes corresponds to a specific temperature value or range as listed in the market description. Review the outcome labels and numeric boundaries on the KALSHI market page to see exactly how observed temperatures map to outcomes and which units are used.
Settlement follows the platform's published data and revision policy described in the market rules. In practice, KALSHI uses the official dataset or station reading as defined in the market description and addresses later corrections according to its dispute/amendment procedures—check the market rules or contact support for details.
Conditions that favor a high maximum include a mid-level ridge or warm onshore flow from the south or southeast, clear skies with strong daytime solar insolation, and light offshore winds that reduce maritime moderation; absence of cloud and precipitation during daytime hours also supports higher peaks.