| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 46° to 47° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $34K | Trade → |
| 44° to 45° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $15K | Trade → |
| 48° to 49° | 99% | 98¢ | 99¢ | — | $9K | Trade → |
| 42° to 43° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| 50° or above | 4% | 1¢ | 4¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 41° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
This market asks which outcome will represent the highest temperature recorded in Seattle on March 10, 2026. It matters to traders and to weather-sensitive interests because short-term temperature extremes affect energy demand, transportation, and event planning.
Seattle sits in a maritime climate where early March is a transitional month; temperatures can swing from cool, damp conditions to unseasonably warm spells depending on Pacific storm tracks and atmospheric ridging. Large-scale drivers such as the position of the jet stream, coastal fronts, and any evolving El Niño/La Niña pattern can all influence conditions on a single day. Local factors like urban heat, snow cover, or recent rainfall can modulate the daily maximum at the observing site.
Market odds aggregate participants' views about which temperature category will be the recorded maximum on March 10, 2026 and change as new forecasts and observations arrive. To interpret them, treat prices as a real-time expression of collective expectations and information rather than fixed forecasts.
The market settles to the official source named in the event rules; check the event page's settlement/source field for the exact station or dataset (commonly an official NOAA/NWS observing site). That specified source is authoritative for determining the winning outcome.
The six listed outcomes are mutually exclusive bins covering different temperature ranges; the winning outcome is the bin that contains the official highest temperature reported by the designated settlement source for March 10, 2026, subject to the market's tie-breaking and settlement rules.
The event currently shows a closing time of 'TBD'; monitor the event page for the posted trading cutoff. Markets often close shortly before the observation/settlement window ends but the exact cutoff for this market will be announced on the platform.
The definition follows the market's settlement rules: typically the calendar day at the designated station in local standard/local daylight time, but the event page will state whether the measurement uses local time or UTC and the exact observation interval used for determining the daily maximum.
Instrument failures, station relocations, changes in observation procedures, or post-event revisions by the reporting agency can affect the official record; the market's dispute and settlement policies explain how such cases are handled and whether alternate sources or adjustments will be used.