| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 65° to 66° | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $14K | Trade → |
| 67° to 68° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $12K | Trade → |
| 69° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $9K | Trade → |
| 63° to 64° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| 61° to 62° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 60° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature recorded in San Francisco will be on March 9, 2026. It matters for traders and weather watchers because temperature outcomes summarize how atmospheric patterns and local effects combine on a specific day.
San Francisco has a cool maritime climate with strong day-to-day variability in spring as large-scale patterns interact with a persistent coastal influence. March is a transition month: occasional frontal systems can bring warmer or cooler conditions while the marine layer and sea-breeze circulation continue to modulate daytime maxima. Long-term warming shifts the baseline but single-day highs are driven mainly by synoptic weather and local circulation.
Market prices reflect the collective, real-time judgment of participants about which outcome is most likely given available information; they update as forecasts and observations change. Treat prices as a dynamic consensus indicator, not a guarantee of any single outcome.
The close time is set by the exchange (listed as TBD); settlement typically occurs after the date in question once the official temperature record for the full day is available. Check the market page and contract rules for exact close and settlement timestamps.
The contract rules specify the official data source and station (for example, a National Weather Service or NOAA reporting station). Always verify the listed station/data provider on the market page because settlement will follow that specified source.
The market's rule text defines whether 'highest temperature' means the maximum air temperature recorded at the official station over the 24‑hour period and states the units (Fahrenheit or Celsius) and any rounding or binning conventions; consult those rules for the precise definition used for settlement.
The six outcomes correspond to mutually exclusive temperature ranges or bins covering all possible maxima for that date. The exact numeric ranges and endpoints are shown on the event page and in the contract terms.
A persistent marine layer or strong onshore flow tends to lower daytime maxima near the coast, while rapid clearing and offshore flow or a warm-air ridge can produce higher peaks; inland neighborhoods and urban heat islands can produce warmer readings than coastal sites, so the timing and extent of these features matter for the settled maximum.