| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 72° to 73° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $49K | Trade → |
| 74° to 75° | 99% | 97¢ | 100¢ | — | $15K | Trade → |
| 76° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $14K | Trade → |
| 67° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $12K | Trade → |
| 68° to 69° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $10K | Trade → |
| 70° to 71° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
This market asks which of six discrete outcomes will correspond to the highest air temperature observed in San Francisco on March 8, 2026; it matters for traders and weather-sensitive stakeholders who want to express or hedge expectations about that day's local temperature.
San Francisco's climate is strongly influenced by the Pacific Ocean and the marine layer, so early March often features cool, maritime conditions with occasional warm spikes when offshore winds or high-pressure ridging occur. This specific market on KALSHI has seen active interest (total volume traded noted on the platform) and remains open with its close time listed as TBD; the event will resolve to an official observed maximum temperature for March 8, 2026 according to the market's stated source and rules.
Prices in this prediction market represent the crowd's relative expectations about which discrete temperature outcome will be realized on March 8, 2026; interpret prices as signals of relative likelihoods but always check the event description for the official observation source, rounding, and resolution procedures.
The market close time is listed as TBD on the event page; the outcome will be determined after March 8, 2026 once the official observing data for that calendar day are available and the market's resolution rules are applied—check the KALSHI event description for exact close and resolution timings.
The market resolves to the official source specified in the event's rules on KALSHI; that typically names a particular observing station or agency (for example, an NWS station), so consult the event description to see which station and dataset will be used.
'Highest temperature' is defined according to the market's resolution criteria found on the event page—commonly this means the maximum recorded air temperature during the local calendar day of March 8, 2026, with any specified rounding or averaging procedures noted in the rules; verify those specifics on the KALSHI listing.
Early March in San Francisco is usually governed by maritime influence and a relatively narrow typical range of highs, but episodic offshore wind events or large-scale warm anomalies can produce above-normal daytime highs; reviewing recent March climatology and past notable warm or cool March 8 observations can provide useful context.
Short-term forecast updates (model runs, satellite and radar trends), announcements of incoming fronts or high-pressure ridging, changes in predicted wind direction (onshore vs offshore), and any corrections or updates to observational metadata can all prompt last-minute price movement in the market.