| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 72° to 73° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $24K | Trade → |
| 74° to 75° | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $15K | Trade → |
| 78° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| 76° to 77° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| 70° to 71° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| 69° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature range will represent the highest observed temperature in San Francisco on March 7, 2026. It matters to traders and weather-sensitive users who want to express or hedge expectations about a specific day's weather outcome in the city.
San Francisco's daily temperatures are heavily influenced by coastal marine air, the presence or absence of fog, and episodic offshore warming events. March is a transition month when both cool, marine-dominated days and occasional warmer inland/downslope events are possible; larger-scale patterns such as El Niño/La Niña and the position of Pacific pressure systems can shift the odds of unusually warm or cool outcomes.
Market prices aggregate participant expectations about which temperature range will be the day's maximum; treat prices as a consensus signal to be used alongside official observational data and weather forecasts. Resolution depends on the official observing station and rules listed on the market page, so check that before drawing conclusions.
Resolution follows the official resolution source and timing specified on the market's event page; typically the market settles after the authoritative agency posts the daily maximum for the specified station and date. Check the event description for the exact source, time window, and any tie-breaking rules.
The exact observing station used to determine the highest temperature is listed in the market's event details. Because San Francisco has many microclimates, the specified station (for example an NWS/NOAA station named on the event) is the single, authoritative source for settlement.
The market uses the date definition provided on its event page; most weather markets use the local calendar date associated with the named observing station, but you should verify the event's time-zone and 24-hour observation window in the market rules.
Historically, March often features cool, foggy days near the coast with occasional warmer days when offshore flow or a strong ridge develops. That historical tendency means extremes are less common than in summer, but synoptic setups can still produce notably warm or cool maxima.
A developing inland ridge with clear skies, strong daytime solar insolation, and offshore/downslope winds into the bay area would favor a warmer maximum; conversely, a persistent marine layer, onshore flow, or a passing cool front would favor a lower maximum.