| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 72° or above | 16% | 13¢ | 17¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| 70° to 71° | 34% | 28¢ | 34¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 66° to 67° | 16% | 11¢ | 15¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 64° to 65° | 3% | 2¢ | 3¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 68° to 69° | 41% | 36¢ | 40¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 63° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest observed air temperature in San Francisco will be on March 6, 2026; outcomes matter for traders and for anyone monitoring short‑term weather impacts such as event planning, energy demand, or public safety.
San Francisco's daily maximum in early March is shaped by competing influences: cool Pacific marine air and onshore flow versus inland warming when the marine layer erodes. Local factors (coast vs. inland neighborhoods, elevation, and urban heat island) create large differences across relatively short distances, and seasonal to large‑scale patterns (seasonal climatology, synoptic lows or ridges) set the baseline for any given day.
Market odds summarize the trading community's aggregate expectations based on current forecasts and available data; they update as new weather forecasts, observations, or other information arrive and should be read as the market's current consensus rather than a fixed scientific measurement.
The market's settlement rules specify the official source; that will be the named station or dataset used to report the daily maximum (commonly an official NOAA/NWS station or airport ASOS/AWOS). Check the market rules on the event page to see the exact station or dataset that will be used.
Settlement follows the definition in the event's rules: typically the outcome is tied to a single, specified observational station within San Francisco rather than a city‑wide or Bay Area average. Confirm the named station in the market description.
The settlement time window follows the conventions of the chosen data provider and is stated in the market rules; in most cases it will use the local calendar day for the official station, but you should verify the exact window on the event page.
The market's settlement procedure addresses missing or revised data: common approaches are to use the first final published value from the named source, apply an official revision when available, or use a clearly defined fallback source. Review the event's dispute and fallback provisions in the rules for precise handling.
The market closing time is listed on the event page (currently TBD); settlement typically occurs after the official data provider publishes the final daily maximum for Mar 6, 2026 and after any allowed post‑publication dispute window defined by the market.