| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 68° or above | 8% | 4¢ | 6¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| 66° to 67° | 26% | 26¢ | 27¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 62° to 63° | 22% | 22¢ | 28¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 60° to 61° | 2% | 2¢ | 3¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 59° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 64° to 65° | 44% | 39¢ | 44¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature range will be the highest recorded in San Francisco on March 5, 2026. It matters because short-term weather extremes affect local transportation, energy demand, and public planning.
San Francisco's early March climate is transitional from winter to spring, with coastal influence, marine layer, and occasional passage of Pacific storm systems influencing temperatures. Local microclimates (coastal vs. inland neighborhoods) and synoptic-scale patterns (e.g., onshore flow or offshore winds) have historically produced a wide spread in daily highs for early March.
Market prices aggregate traders' information and reflect how participants weigh available forecasts and risks; they update as new meteorological data arrive. Use market odds as a real-time signal of consensus expectations, but complement them with official weather forecasts and observations.
It measures the highest reported air temperature for the specified date at the official observation location designated by the market; the market page should specify which station or data source (for example an NWS/NOAA station) is used to settle the outcome.
The event is split into six discrete outcome bins corresponding to predetermined temperature ranges; the precise boundaries for each bin are listed on the market’s outcome description on the platform — check that listing for exact settlement ranges.
The listed close time is currently TBD; the platform will announce a closing time prior to the event. Final settlement typically uses the official daily summary from the designated observing station and is posted after that source publishes the day’s official values (often within 24–48 hours).
Early March highs in San Francisco commonly fall in the cool-to-mild range due to coastal influences, with variability between immediate-coast and inland areas; consult the market’s outcome bins against local climatology (historical March highs) to gauge relative extremity.
Watch operational forecast models (ECMWF, GFS, high-resolution regional runs), National Weather Service short- and medium-range forecasts, satellite and radar trends, and local station observations — pay special attention to predicted wind direction (onshore vs offshore), cloud cover forecasts, and timing of any frontal systems that will arrive near March 5.