| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 61° to 62° | 35% | 35¢ | 39¢ | — | $11K | Trade → |
| 65° or above | 1% | 1¢ | 2¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| 63° to 64° | 78% | 56¢ | 67¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| 59° to 60° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 57° to 58° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
| 56° or below | 2% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature bracket will be recorded as the highest temperature in San Francisco on March 4, 2026. It matters because traders aggregate weather forecasts and local observations into a single, tradable signal that updates as conditions change.
San Francisco has a cool-summer Mediterranean climate where March is a transition month: daytime highs can be moderated by marine influence but are also sensitive to offshore warming events and synoptic patterns. In recent decades the region has experienced greater variability in extremes, so single-day highs can deviate from long-term averages depending on prevailing weather patterns.
Market prices reflect the collective view of participants about which outcome is most likely given current forecasts and information; they update as new meteorological data arrive and should be used alongside official weather forecasts and station definitions.
The market's settlement rules specify the official reporting station or dataset used for final determination; check the KALSHI event page and settlement terms for the exact station (commonly the designated NOAA/NWS or ASOS station serving San Francisco).
The applicable calendar day and time zone are defined in the market's settlement rules—typically the local calendar day (00:00 to 23:59 local time) as reported by the chosen observation source—so confirm the event page for the precise window.
This market is partitioned into six mutually exclusive outcomes corresponding to the temperature bins listed on the event page; view the outcome labels and their exact numeric boundaries on the KALSHI contract to understand how settlement will map the observed max to an outcome.
Key short-term changers include the arrival or retreat of a marine layer, an offshore wind event or heat surge, and the timing of any frontal passage or upper-level trough; late shifts in cloud cover or local wind direction on the day can materially change the observed maximum.
Settlement follows KALSHI's procedures using the official observation; final determination may take a short period after the observation to allow for data verification—consult the market's settlement policy on the event page for expected timing and dispute processes.