| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 65° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 66° to 67° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 68° to 69° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 70° to 71° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 72° to 73° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 74° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks the official daily maximum temperature recorded in San Francisco on March 30, 2026. It serves as a benchmark for localized climate volatility and seasonal weather patterns in the San Francisco Bay Area.
San Francisco weather is notoriously influenced by its unique coastal geography, where the Pacific Ocean often moderates temperature fluctuations. March marks the transition from winter to spring, a period characterized by variable marine layer influence and shifting high-pressure systems. Historical records for late March typically show moderate temperatures, though microclimates across the city can cause significant variations between inland neighborhoods and the coast.
Participants use this market to reflect their outlook on meteorological trends based on seasonal forecasting and climate data.
This market typically relies on data from the official National Weather Service (NWS) reporting station for San Francisco, generally located at San Francisco International Airport (SFO).
The marine layer acts as a cooling mechanism; if it persists through the afternoon, it prevents the sun from heating the land, often keeping the high temperature significantly lower than expected.
The outcome is determined by the specific integer value recorded as the daily high. Extreme weather events outside the typical range are still accounted for within the designated market outcome tiers.
Yes, the daily high temperature is the absolute peak reading recorded during the 24-hour calendar day, which usually occurs in the mid-to-late afternoon.
While San Francisco is known for its mild, consistent climate, historical records show that temperatures can occasionally deviate due to sudden shifts in wind direction or rare heat domes.