| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 65° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $14K | Trade → |
| 61° to 62° | 98% | 97¢ | 98¢ | — | $11K | Trade → |
| 63° to 64° | 1% | 1¢ | 2¢ | — | $9K | Trade → |
| 59° to 60° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| 56° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 57° to 58° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature recorded in San Francisco on March 3, 2026 will be. It matters for short‑term planning (events, energy demand, public safety) and for people tracking unusual weather behavior in the region.
San Francisco has a maritime climate, so daily high temperatures in early March are strongly influenced by the strength of the marine layer, onshore flow, and occasional offshore wind events. While many March days are cool and cloudy near the coast, synoptic setups (frontal passages or offshore wind) can produce much warmer afternoons in parts of the city. Historical variability means a single day can fall anywhere from typical cool-season values to an anomalously warm day if conditions favor it.
Market prices reflect traders’ aggregated expectations about which temperature outcome will be the day’s maximum; higher price signifies stronger market confidence in that outcome. Prices will move as new forecasts, model runs, and observations arrive in the days before and on March 3.
The market will resolve using the specific observing station and data source named in the contract page—commonly an NWS/NOAA/ASOS station designated for San Francisco. Check the market’s resolution rules to confirm the exact station and dataset.
Resolution normally uses the local calendar day for San Francisco (Pacific local time) from 00:00 to 23:59 on March 3, 2026, as recorded by the designated observing station; the market’s rules will specify the time convention if it differs.
The six outcomes are mutually exclusive bins that together cover the possible range of daily maximum temperatures; the market page shows the exact numeric endpoints and whether boundaries are inclusive or exclusive—refer to that specification for precise interpretation.
Resolution typically occurs after the official daily maximum is published and any routine quality control is applied by the designated data provider; that can take from a few hours up to several days—consult the market’s resolution timeline for specifics.
Key developments include a strengthening offshore (warm) wind event, an approaching cold front or low producing cloud and rain, rapid changes in the marine layer depth, and unexpected shifts in cloud cover—near‑term model runs and 48–72 hour observations are most informative for those changes.