| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 68° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 69° to 70° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 71° to 72° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 73° to 74° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 75° to 76° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 77° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks participants to forecast the highest air temperature recorded in San Francisco on March 27, 2026; it matters to traders and users who hedge or speculate on one-day weather outcomes and to anyone tracking short-term climate variability.
San Francisco's climate is strongly influenced by the nearby Pacific Ocean and local topography, producing large differences between coastal and inland readings and frequent marine-layer effects in spring. Late March is a transitional month when synoptic patterns (onshore flow versus offshore warming) can produce either cool, cloudy conditions or unusually warm inland-influenced spikes. The market's six outcomes represent discrete temperature bands defined in the contract.
Market prices reflect the collective view of which temperature band is most likely to occur and update as new forecasts and observations emerge; treat prices as a real-time consensus signal rather than a deterministic prediction.
The contract's settlement rules specify the exact data source and observing station used for the highest temperature; Kalshi commonly cites official NOAA/NWS or ASOS station data for a named San Francisco station—consult the event page for the precise station and dataset.
The market close time is listed as TBD on the event page; the daily high is typically the maximum reported during the local calendar day (00:00–23:59 local time) at the specified station—check the event's settlement section for exact close and measurement windows.
The market's official rules include fallback procedures (such as using a nearby official station or an accepted alternative dataset); review the event's settlement provisions to see the prescribed contingencies.
Conditions that favor a warmer outcome include offshore/downslope winds bringing inland heat toward the city, persistent high pressure with clear skies, weak or absent marine layer, and strong daytime solar heating—timing and exposure (inland vs. coastal sites) matter a lot.
Use historical climatology to set a baseline for typical variability, but combine that with current seasonal anomalies, ENSO/state of the atmosphere, and short-range model forecasts; historical single-day values provide context but do not guarantee future outcomes.